Ethiopia will hold its seventh national election on June 1, 2026, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party expected to win. The vote unfolds as Gulf states compete for influence in the Horn of Africa and the long-running dispute with Egypt over the Nile River intensifies.
The electoral process marks a critical test for stability in a nation still recovering from a two-year civil war in the Tigray region that ended in 2022. The vote takes place against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical rivalries, as external powers jostle for strategic footholds in the region.
The Tigray region will not participate in the election for the second consecutive time, with tensions there remaining high. Regional authorities have cited unresolved issues from the peace deal, including the return of displaced populations and accountability for wartime atrocities.
Abiy's expected victory could consolidate his hold on power but risks deepening grievances in Tigray and other areas that feel politically marginalized. The Nile dispute with Egypt — centered on Ethiopia's Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam — adds another layer of volatility.
Critics argue that excluding Tigray undermines the credibility of the election and could reignite conflict. International observers have raised concerns about the fairness of the process, though the government insists the vote is inclusive and peaceful.