State Representative James Talarico (D) holds a 47% to 44% lead over Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) among likely general election voters in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Friday. The survey, which was conducted after the primary runoff, captures the first major snapshot of a contest that has drawn national attention as a potential bellwether for the 2026 midterms.
The poll suggests Talarico's edge, while narrow, places Paxton in a defensive posture in a state that has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. Both campaigns are expected to focus heavily on turnout in suburban swing districts, where independent voters could decide the outcome. The Libertarian candidate, Ted Brown, registered at 1% in the initial poll, but the survey found that 13% of undecided voters now lean toward him.
Democrats have seized on the poll as evidence that Talarico's moderate messaging on economic policy and public education is resonating beyond the party's base. Republicans, however, point to Paxton's strong name recognition and fundraising advantage, arguing that undecided voters will break toward the GOP closer to Election Day. The Texas GOP has also blasted the poll as an outlier, noting that internal party surveys show a tighter race.
Voter enthusiasm appears to favor Democrats slightly, with 48% of Talarico supporters saying they are "very enthusiastic" about turning out, versus 43% of Paxton backers. Still, the race remains within the margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, and both campaigns are already reserving significant television advertising time in the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston markets.
Analysts caution that the poll reflects early sentiment, not a prediction. Historical precedent in Texas shows that undecided voters often break toward the Republican candidate in the final weeks, particularly on issues of border security and crime — areas where Paxton has campaigned aggressively.