Iran possesses untapped oil storage capacity and methods to slip tankers through the US naval blockade, potentially delaying the economic pressure campaign for months, analysts told Axios. The strategy could give Tehran leverage as the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz grinds on.
Oil exports are Iran's economic lifeblood. President Trump aims to halt them entirely to force concessions. But the country's ability to stockpile crude and move some shipments means it may not face an immediate production shutdown.
Antoine Halff of Kayrros, a climate and energy analytics firm, wrote that Iran "may not be in imminent danger of a major crude oil shut-in." He pointed to stockpiling experience from the Covid crisis, available space at other facilities, and a decade of investment in alternate export routes.
The Eurasia Group's Gregory Brew, however, challenges estimates from mid-April that Iran only had enough storage to maintain output for a limited period. This suggests the timeline for economic pain is uncertain for both sides.
A prolonged stalemate could create political headaches for Trump if global energy prices rise or if allied nations grow frustrated with the blockade's secondary effects on regional stability.